Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 4.139187 4.869222 5.677643 6.637471 7.744124 8.978121 10.456416
2025-08-17 2.795227 3.707637 4.830633 6.306464 8.185980 10.489824 13.516799
2025-08-24 2.068726 3.039286 4.345082 6.211887 8.790091 12.199627 17.018772
2025-08-31 1.602629 2.574038 3.985486 6.153477 9.358791 13.873168 20.647758
2025-09-07 1.351603 2.345488 3.888456 6.407706 10.351988 16.205804 25.434725
2025-09-14 1.119770 2.088045 3.685919 6.444391 10.992672 18.066791 29.718911
2025-09-21 0.939076 1.872427 3.502189 6.463177 11.580284 19.882023 34.101967
2025-09-28 0.795598 1.689850 3.336229 6.472794 12.133089 21.676974 38.615884
2025-10-05 0.753632 1.688733 3.488758 7.056704 13.730665 25.346570 46.571494
2025-10-12 0.674930 1.597213 3.454583 7.286064 14.714663 28.058188 53.151126
2025-10-19 0.608001 1.516033 3.425058 7.514523 15.714966 30.885079 60.185545
2025-10-26 0.531333 1.396993 3.297592 7.525833 16.293632 32.992861 66.106908
2025-11-02 0.442119 1.232108 3.050626 7.265412 16.326499 34.130960 70.440349
2025-11-09 0.361025 1.068365 2.777518 6.907330 16.115295 34.783641 73.935815
2025-11-16 0.309185 0.967370 2.630439 6.805073 16.426557 36.493037 79.650995
2025-11-23 0.267497 0.883590 2.509097 6.741761 16.810684 38.382451 85.896717
2025-11-30 0.247798 0.857916 2.528769 7.018233 17.989803 42.036973 96.079807
2025-12-07 0.220196 0.801566 2.457890 7.058136 18.622896 44.580485 104.150794
2025-12-14 0.195469 0.747842 2.384107 7.078567 19.210082 47.075832 112.332884
2025-12-21 0.173600 0.697716 2.311016 7.089024 19.772442 49.565411 120.713525
2025-12-28 0.173421 0.722373 2.459614 7.723545 21.967894 55.965647 138.291459
2026-01-04 0.161437 0.701858 2.469520 7.972684 23.206171 60.254164 151.442026
2026-01-11 0.150431 0.682158 2.478550 8.220792 24.470021 64.712733 165.334813